(Re)Imagine

The Official Blog of Acuity Knowledge Partners

Austerity at a time of economic contraction

Published on April 3, 2013 by Paul Alapat

With Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy mired in recession, and many having contracted for several years, the European obsession with slashing public spending and managing national debt immediately appears suicidal.

The emphasis on fiscal discipline is essential for stable and sustainable economic growth over the long term, particularly in the face of aging demographics in most of Europe. However, the German insistence on fiscal austerity in the short term as a means to lower yields and fortify investor confidence is misguided.

The insistence on domestic belt-tightening in Continental Europe, echoed in the US and the UK, in the absence of significant external sources of aggregate demand growth, raises the risk that several of the recessions will tip into depressions, and that incipient recovery, including that in the US, could be cut short.

Unfortunately, political compulsions seem to be driving economic policy making in the EU, just as they did when the common-currency bloc was created. We may have to wait for the social fabric in PIIGS to unravel before a course correction in economic policies is allowed.


What's your view?
captcha code
Thank you for sharing your Comments

Share this on


About the Author
 

Paul manages the Quantitative Services division at Acuity Knowledge Partners. He has over 22 years of capital markets’ experience in both research and trading. Previously, Paul was Chief Economist Asia (ex-Japan) at Nomura, Regional Financial Economist at Lehman Brothers, and a visiting Professor of Finance at IIM, Bangalore.

 post image 2 Blog
Higher US Treasury yields (UST) – Repricing te....

Highlights: Long-term US Treasury yields have been rising since late 2020, as the....Read More

 post image 2 Blog
Global commercial real estate – From a pandemi....

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19, no less than a “black-swan” event, has broug....Read More

 post image 2 Blog
Why lending transformation requires a new bus

In the early 2000s, it was predicted that automation technologies could have a financial i....Read More

 post image 2 Blog
Operational transformation in lending-The Fou

The term “four-minute mile” has historically been used to refer to something considere....Read More

 post image 2 Blog
AAA Leadership Model – Three Golden Princip

“The true price of leadership is the willingness to place the needs of others above your....Read More

Like the way we think?

Next time we post something new, we'll send it to your inbox